What Jeff Probst Really Thinks About That Shot in the Dark Sacrifice

The rice negotiation began before the individual immunity challenge in Season 47 Episode 10, which marked Kyle’s fourth individual win (he’s close to joining the small group of Survivor players who have won the record of five individual challenges). Caroline offered for two players to give up their Shots in the Dark instead of four players being benched, which Probst rejected. Then Kyle suggested that all of the players give up their 1-in-6 shot at immunity. Sam needed some convincing, but Gabe eventually changed his mind. When they were all in, Probst agreed to take the Shots in the Dark out of the competition, and On Fire confirmed they’re “gone for the rest of the season,” as cohost Jay Wolff said.

Rachel already played her shot in Episode 8 in what Probst called a “brilliant” move that had the potential to change the game forever. Keeping her individual immunity idol secret, Rachel played her Shot in the Dark before the votes were read to gauge the reactions among the merged tribe. When no one looked worried that she might be immune, Rachel knew that she wasn’t the target for elimination. As of Episode 10, she’s still keeping her idol for a rainy day. The advantage had never been used that way before. Getting another new use just two episodes later was unexpected and shows this cast’s ability to think quickly.

“The Shot in the Dark in the game allows for more blindsides. You’ve said that on this podcast,” Wolff said to Probst in On Fire. “Was there some hesitation from you from a producer perspective that trading in all these Shots in the Dark would make the game less unpredictable?” Probst replied that his immediate reaction was to quickly think about if or how this could “break” the game overall.

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“The offer to sacrifice all their Shots in the Dark in exchange for rice played out in real time, so my decision was also happening in real time,” Probst shared. “In moments like that, you’re quickly using your critical thinking to go through a mental checklist of any really obvious game-breaking problems that this deal might cause. You’re also weighing the value of the offer. Is this a real sacrifice for them? Is it worth the rice? You’re also still in host mode, so you’re having a conversation with the group while you’re watching the reactions of the players to see if there’s any story coming from this, like Sam having to be talked into it.”

“Hanging above all of these other considerations is the human in me thinking these are real people, they’re busting their butts in this game. That’s good. The gameplay is so tight, nobody wants to give up their shot at immunity. That’s good. And they’ve come up with a pretty inventive idea. That’s also good,” Probst went on. “So Jeff, you got to really consider it. And finally, yes, I’m also considering the impact of the obvious thing, which is you’re losing that dramatic element at tribal, which does create a lot of uncertainty. So after considering all of this during that 10 seconds, I ultimately felt it was a very strong offer and quite likely to result down the line in at least one player at some point regretting their decision to give up their Hail Mary. So I said yes.”

He warns future contestants that just because he let this happen in Season 47, doesn’t mean he’ll let it happen again: “Remember, future players, every season is unique for the players. It’s also unique for me. I go back to a familiar refrain: on Survivor history is merely an indicator of what has happened, but not a predictor of what might happen in the future.”

Cohost Charlie Davis says that Rachel is “looking like a super genius” now because of this group decision (even without her Shot in the Dark as an option, she consented to this move). “She’s the only one that got to even use her Shot in the Dark at all and now she gives up nothing and gets rice. Go, Rachel.”

With the Shot in the Dark safety net gone and no one playing immunity idols, everyone but Kyle could’ve been eliminated in this episode. The votes were split between Gabe and Genevieve, but Gabe ended up getting the boot.

What did you think of this negotiation? Are you happy to see Shot in the Dark removed for now? Would you like to see players try to negotiate to bring the advantage back into the game before the season is up? Clearly, anything is possible in Survivor. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section, below.

Survivor, Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS